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Real estate tax rate may go up 6 cents in Beach

by Brian Farrell WVEC.com

VIRGINIA BEACH -- "It appears that we have a good chance of a 6 cents tax increase for the City of Virginia Beach," acknowledged Mayor Will Sessoms. "I hate to see that, but I do think that in recent years we've been able to hold back through cuts and using reserves to make sure our schools were properly funded and the city properly funded. I don't know that we have an option this year."

City council members met Tuesday for a budget reconciliation workshop as they approach a vote on the upcoming fiscal year's budget next week.

The original proposal offered by City Manager Jim Spore included an increase of 4 cents in the real estate tax rate. Sessoms believes the extra 2 cents is the way to go. It would provide a 2 percent raise for teachers. Because of drops in home assessments, he points out the average homeowner would pay less than he/she did in 2008 and 2009.

"The quality of life in this city is extremely good, and, in my opinion, at a very fair price. We can jeopardize the quality of life in this city by not raising the tax rate. I would rather lose an election in order to make sure the quality of life in Virginia Beach stays up like this," Sessoms said, raising his hand high in the air.

Councilman Bill DeSteph and Councilman John Moss believe the tax rate can remain at the current level (89 cents/$100 assessed value). They offered an alternative proposal Tuesday.

"We're talking about a balanced budget without increasing taxes, without impacting our families' disposable income at all," DeSteph told 13News.

The plan includes many measures including eliminating city executive car allowances, filling public safety vacancies but staggering the hiring of people to fill openings that are not related to public safety, and keeping the budget for new vehicles at $4.1 million which was the amount allotted for the current fiscal year.

"Instead of increasing it to $5.1 million, hold it at the same level. A lot of moms and dads out there are holding their vehicles for another year and just sucking it up. They're not buying the new vehicle this year," DeSteph said.

The budget adjustments he and Moss propose require the school board to defer raises for teachers.

"Next year, do we need to increase taxes? Probably. We either need to cut services next year or increase taxes, one of the two. You can't have both," stated DeSteph. "This year, we don't need to do either."

US home-buying season finally signaling a recovery

by DEREK KRAVITZ and ALEX VEIGA, AP Real Estate Wr

Five years after the U.S. housing bust sent sales and prices plunging, the spring home-buying season is pointing to a long-awaited recovery.

Reduced prices, record-low mortgage rates, higher rents and an improving job market appear to be emboldening many would-be buyers. Open houses are drawing crowds. A wave of foreclosures is leading investors to grab bargain-priced homes.

And many people seem to have concluded that prices won't drop much further. In some areas, prices have begun to tick up.

Interviews with more than two dozen potential buyers, sellers, brokers, Realtors and economists suggest that confidence is up and that sales will move slowly but steadily higher.

"The biggest challenge that we've had over the past four years is fear — fear that the economy is collapsing, that property values are collapsing, that the world is coming to an end," says Mark Prather, a broker at ERA Buy America Real Estate in La Palma, Calif. "The fear factor is all but gone."

Rents keep rising as home prices stagnate

by By Les Christie @CNNMoney

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Renting used to be cheaper than buying. But in many U.S. cities that's no longer the case, as rents continue to climb and home prices stagnate.

While asking prices for homes declined 0.7% over the past 12 months through March, rents rose 5%, according to a report released Thursday by real estate listing site Trulia.

The median rent for all types of rental homes hit $1,350 a month in March, up from a median of $1,285 a month 12 months ago, Trulia reported.

"Buying a home is more affordable than renting now in almost every part of the United States," said Jed Kolko, chief economist for Trulia.

Several metro areas recorded double-digit percentage increases in rental rates.

In Sarasota, Fla., the average rent jumped 12.9% year-over-year, the biggest increase of any of the 100 largest metro areas Trulia surveyed. Miami and San Francisco saw the next biggest increases, with rent hikes of 12.1% and 11.1%, respectively.

The metro areas that sustained the highest rent increases were a decidedly mixed bag, but obviously shared one factor: rising demand for a limited supply of rental units. Read More

Experts Expect to See Broad Improvements, Home Prices to Rise in 2013

by Esther Cho - DSNews.com

The Urban Land Institute released its Real Estate Consensus Forecast Wednesday morning, and overall, the 38 real estate economists and analysts surveyed projected broad improvements for the economy.

With signs of improvement in the housing sector already emerging, participants expect to see housing starts nearly double by 2014 and project home prices will begin to rise in 2013.

The average home price, which has declined somewhere between 1.8 percent and 4.1 percent over each of the past three years, according to FHFA data, is expected to stabilize in 2012, followed by a 2 percent increase in 2013, and a 3.5 percent increase in 2014.

Single-family housing starts are expected to rise from 428,600 starts in 2011 to 500,000 in 2012, and jump to 800,000 in 2014.

The unemployment rate is expected to continue falling, with the rate dropping to 8 percent by the end of 2012, 7.5 percent by the end of 2013, and 6.9 percent by the end of 2014.

GDP is expected to grow by 2.5 percent in 2012 and grow to 3.2 percent in 2014.

But, with the improving economy is inflation and higher interest rates. These rising rates will increase costs for investors, and those surveyed do not expect substantial increases in real estate capitalization rates for institutional-quality investments (NCREIF cap rates), which are expected to remain steady at 6 percent in 2012 and 2013 and then rise slightly to 6.2 percent in 2014.

By property type, National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) total returns in 2012 are expected to be strongest for apartments (12.1 percent), followed by industrial (11.5 percent), office (10.8 percent), and retail (10 percent).

By 2014, returns are expected to be strongest for office (10 percent) and industrial (10 percent), followed by apartments (8.8 percent) and retail (8.5 percent).

ULI CEO Patrick L. Phillips advised that while the ULI Forecast suggests that economic growth will be steady rather than sporadic, it must be viewed within the context of numerous risk factors such as the continuing impact of Europe’s debt crisis; the impact of the upcoming presidential election in the U.S. and major elections overseas; and the complexities of tighter financial regulations in the U.S. and abroad.

“While geopolitical and global economic events could change the forecast going forward, what we see in this survey is confidence that the U.S. real estate economy has weathered the brunt of the recent financial storm and is poised for significant improvement over the next three years.,” said Phillips.

Non-housing sector growth, according to the ULI Forecast, which was conducted from February 23 to March 12, 2012

-For the apartment sector, year-end vacancy rates are expected to decline further in 2012 to 5 percent, and then rise slightly to 5.1 percent in 2013 and to 5.3 percent in 2014.

-Apartments are expected to show strong rental rate growth, rising 5 percent in 2012, then slowing down to 4 percent in 2013, and 3.8 percent in 2014.

-Issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) is expected to increase from $33 billion in 2011 to $40 billion in 2012, $58 billion in 2013, and $75 billion in 2014.

-Ten-year treasury rates are projected to rise to 2.4 percent by the end of 2012, 3.1 percent for 2013, and 3.8 percent for 2014.

-Future equity REIT returns are expected to rise to 10 percent in 2012, then drop to 9 percent in 2013, and 8 percent in 2014.

-Returns for institutional-quality direct real estate investments are expected to trend lower, with returns of 11 percent in 2012, 9.5 percent in 2013, and 8.5 percent in 2014.

-Hotel occupancy rates are projected to increase to 57 percent by 2012, 58.2 percent by 2013, and 59.2 percent by 2014.

-For the industrial/warehouse sector, vacancy rates are expected to decline steadily over the next three years to 12.8 percent by the end of 2012, 12.1 percent in 2013, and 11.5 percent by the end of 2014.

 

Buying cheaper than renting in nearly 100 major U.S. markets: Trulia

by Justin T. Hilley

Buying is more affordable than renting in 98 out of the nation's 100 largest metropolitan areas — even in New York, Los Angeles and Boston, according to real estate company Trulia's rent vs. buy index.

The index is based on asking prices for rental units and homes for sale on the company's website between Dec. 1, 2011, and Feb. 29.

“As rents rise and prices stagnate, homeownership is becoming even more affordable, but rising rents create a dilemma for people who can’t afford to buy yet,” says Jed Kolko, Trulia’s chief economist. “Rising rents make it harder for people to save for a down payment, which is the biggest barrier to buying a home that aspiring homeowners face.”

Homeowners are choosing, or being forced, to rent rather than buy even though the latter is cheaper in key markets Trulia reviewed.

But as they turn to renting, the influx of demand squeezes the nation's rental supply, pushing monthly rents higher.

The nation's median rent stands at $712 per month — well above the average monthly mortgage cost of $647, Paul Dales, senior economist at Capital Economics, recently found. He estimated decreased vacancies in the home-rental market will push average rental rates up as much as 5% by early 2013, compared to 2.4% in January.

As a consequence of less willingness and ability to buy a home, households in rentals will rise by at least 850,000 a year over the next few years, Dales said.

He expects rents to rise at an annual rate of 3% this year and remain at that level in 2013. "Assuming that the economic recovery gains firmer footing, in future years there is scope for rents to rise by around 4% a year," Dales said.

Only in Honolulu and San Francisco is renting often a better deal than buying. However, Trulia points out that buying a home in these markets might make sense for people who plan to stay in their next home for at least five years and can benefit from the mortgage-interest tax deduction.

“Metros where homeownership is expensive tend to have stronger long-term economic growth and little room to build new homes, like Boston and the San Francisco Bay Area, where people expect home prices to increase over time," Kolko says.

"Buying is much cheaper than renting in slow-growing places with high vacancy rates and land to spare, like Detroit and Cleveland, where prices are unlikely to improve much in the future," he says.

Zillow Survey: Prices Projected to Fall This Year, Rise in 2013

by Esther Cho

Home prices are projected to fall 0.7 percent this year, a more negative expectation than the 0.2 percent decline economists previously anticipated, according to the March 2012 Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey.

Economists in the survey did express an expectation for home prices to go up in 2013, but by 1.4 percent, which is a decrease compared to the previous prediction in December that prices would rise by 1.8 percent. For the year 2016, respondents predicted prices would rise by 3.32 percent.

Sponsored by Zillow and conducted by Pulsenomics, the survey is based on the projected path of the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price index during the next five years.

“The fourth quarter drop in the national Case-Shiller Index was sharper than some expected and is the likely reason so many of the economists in the survey revised their forecasts downward,” said Stan Humphries, chief economist for Zillow. “Looking at the longer history of these forecasts by top economists, the bottom in home prices always seems just around the corner but never quite here.”

The survey included 104 responses from economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists.

The economists surveyed communicated a range of predictions for 2012, with the most optimistic quartile of panelists predicting a 1 percent average increase in home prices during the year, and the most pessimistic predicting an average decline of 2.8 percent. Susan Sterne of Economic Analysis Associates foresees home prices will climb 5 percent during the year, while Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling & Company predicts prices will drop 8 percent.

The March survey also asked the select group about their view on the potential market impact of the REO Initiative, which involves the bulk sale of government-owned foreclosed properties.

“The majority of experts believe that implementation of a bulk sales program is a good idea, even though more than half indicated that it is at least somewhat likely that bulk sales will materially depress overall price levels in housing markets,” said Terry Loebs, founder of Pulsenomics. “However, 79 percent believe that a government bulk sales program will result in a shorter waiting period before the onset of a broad and sustained housing market recovery.”

Home price predictions for the next five years
(March survey)

2012 – (-0.72 percent)
2013 – (+1.39 percent)
2014 – (+2.55 percent)
2015 – (+3.18 percent)
2016 – (+3.32 percent)

 

FHA to Reduce Premiums for Certain Loans

by Esther Cho

Through a streamline refinance program, borrowers with FHA-endorsed loans may find it easier to lock in lower interest rates while paying less in fees.

Beginning June 11, 2012, FHA will lower upfront mortgage insurance premiums to .01 percent and reduce annual premiums to .55 percent for certain FHA borrowers, Carol Galante, acting FHA commissioner, announced today.

To be eligible, borrowers must be current on their FHA-insured loans, which need to have been endorsed on or before May 31, 2009. Read More

Housing Crisis to End in 2012 as Banks Loosen Credit Standards

by Krista Franks - dsnews.com

Capital Economics expects the housing crisis to end this year, according to a report released Tuesday. One of the reasons: loosening credit.

The analytics firm notes the average credit score required to attain a mortgage loan is 700. While this is higher than scores required prior to the crisis, it is constant with requirements one year ago.

Additionally, a Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey found credit requirements in the fourth quarter were consistent with the past three quarters.

However, other market indicators point not just to a stabilization of mortgage lending standards, but also a loosening of credit availability.

Banks are now lending amounts up to 3.5 times borrower earnings. This is up from a low during the crisis of 3.2 times borrower earnings.

Banks are also loosening loan-to-value ratios (LTV), which Capital Economics denotes “the clearest sign yet of an improvement in mortgage credit conditions.”

In contrast to a low of 74 percent reached in mid-2010, banks are now lending at 82 percent LTV.

While credit conditions may have loosened slightly, some potential homebuyers are still struggling with credit requirements. In fact, Capital Economics points out that in November 8 percent of contract cancellations were the result of a potential buyer not qualifying for a loan.

Additionally, Capital Economics says “any improvement in credit conditions won’t be significant enough to generation actual house price gains,” and potential ramifications from the euro-zone pose a threat to future credit availability.

 

Want a date? Buy a home

by By Les Christie @CNNMoney

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- When it comes to dating, homeownership can be the ultimate aphrodisiac.

In a survey of 1,000 single people, more than a third of women and 18% of men said they would much rather date a homeowner than a renter.

Only 2% of women said they preferred to date a man who rents, while only 3% of men said they would choose a woman who rents over one that owns her home, according to the survey, which was conducted by Harris Interactive for real estate site Trulia.

Both sexes also clearly prefer it when there's no roommate in the picture; 62% of survey respondents, men and women, prefer to date singles who live alone. Read More

Housing May Turn the Corner in 2012

by Source: DSNews.com

CoreLogic’s chief economist Mark Fleming says housing statistics and the duration of the downturn to date indicate 2012 may be the year the housing market begins to turn the corner. Read More

Displaying blog entries 1-10 of 18

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